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Os caminhos para a vitória de Serra no 2º turno

Serra começa bem o segundo turno. A começar pelo fato auspicioso da não-vitória de Dilma no primeiro turno, frustrando fortemente as expectativas do PT et caterva. Além disso, na projeção de segundo turno feita pelo Datafolha, em duas semanas a…

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A pergunta que não quer calar: se eleita, Dilma trairá Lula?

A grande imprensa está dando Dilma Rousseff como eleita. Os blogs serristas, porém, se recusam a entregar os pontos. Apontam, por exemplo, distorções nas amostras de todos os institutos de pesquisa eleitoral (no Datafolha, dos 370 municípios pesquisados, 278 são…

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Por que continuo afirmando que Serra vencerá

Em primeiro lugar, porque a pesquisa Ibope que mostra Dilma Rousseff cinco pontos à frente foi manipulada, como muito bem demonstrou o blogueiro Lúcio Neto (www.lucioneto.blogspot.com). Manipulada como, você pode perguntar. Simples: dos 171 municípios pesquisados, 134 são governados pelo…

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Crescimento espetacular de Serra entre as pesquisas Vox Populi e Datafolha

Suponhamos, para efeito de argumentação, que ambas as pesquisas, Vox Populi e Datafolha, estejam certas. O Vox Populi fez seu campo entre 17 e 20 de julho. O Datafolha fez o seu entre 20 e 23 de julho. O Vox…

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Abstenção diferencial poderá ser decisiva a favor de Serra

Vejamos a disputa presidencial região por região:

1. Região Sul (15% do eleitorado nacional): Extremamente favorável a Serra (Alckmin ganhou lá nos dois turnos em 2006). Prognóstico: 30 pontos a favor de Serra (65 a 35% dos votos válidos). Peso…

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Há algo de errado com as pesquisas nacionais

O Ibope confirmou o Datafolha de duas semanas antes: Serra e Dilma empatados em 37%. Compatibilidade total (tão total que até dá para desconfiar). Ocorre que a compatibilidade no todo oculta disparidades imensas em quase todas as partes, A única…

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As besteiras que a Imprensa diz

Mas como a Imprensa fala besteira, hein?! E não é só aqui na Paraíba. E não é só aqui no Brasil. Durante a campanha eleitoral americana de 2008, o que eu vi de bobagens foi uma festa. Quando já…

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Os crimes e escândalos que Lula-lau herdará de si mesmo

“De tanto ver triunfar as nulidades, de tanto ver prosperar a desonra, de tanto ver crescer a injustiça, de tanto ver agigantar-se o poder nas mãos dos maus, o homem chega a desanimar-se da virtude, a rir da honra, a…

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